Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.